How Italy is fighting against Covid-19

There is no doubt that the measures to contain the epidemic from Covid-19 adopted by the Italian Government and valid throughout the national territory (social distancing, no aggregate of people, restricted circulation across the country, now the closure of most companies until April 3rd) have aroused considerable controversy and perplexity. Do they constitute a violation of our freedoms? Did they come too late and had to be set up earlier? Are they enough? What will be the consequences for medium and small businesses?

These and other questions stir the minds of Italians, just as there are many opinions and points of view, but what does science say?

A study originally published by the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) in 2017 and later readapted by The Economist shows the development of the epidemic and the trend of infections over time.

Let's take a quick look at it:



The red curve indicates the number of infections that would potentially develop over time if no precautions were taken, while the blue one represents the situation in the presence of containment measures resembling the ones adopted by the Chinese Government in Wuhan (and now also in Italy).

The blue line is the key, as it indicates our healthcare system capacity. Therefore, according to this study, in the presence of adequate measures, the contagion slows down considerably, spreading over a longer period of time. While it is true that this would extend the epidemic, at the same time it allows hospitals and emergency services to breath, providing adequate assistance to all patients, especially those in need of intensive care.

The measures introduced by the Italian government might look too coercive in the eyes of some, but, considering how easily the disease spreads, it is obvious that common prevention strategies won’t be sufficient. We should therefore all make an effort to flatten the curve, slowing down the inexorable advance of the virus as much as possible.